Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
